A Scenario Planning Framework for Australian Landscapes

Future landscapes are the result of many different processes, some controllable and some not, some predictable and others less so. This lack of predictability and controllability are real challenges to landscape planners and modellers alike who are interested in medium to long-term futures. Scenarios are a standard tool for dealing with and describing variation in the future, however it is important for a scenario planning system to be able to explicitly deal with different types of drivers and uncertainty. Models used to visualise alternative futures are frequently detailed and complicated – while necessary this can present a considerable barrier to policy makers and stakeholders who own the issues under investigation. This paper describes a framework for developing alternative landscape scenarios with the aim of helping policy makers design evidence-based, long-term policy in the face of different sources of uncertainty. The framework combines the scenario planning approach of Schwartz and others and analytically simulation modelling. This framework gives control and ownership of the driver identification and scenario crafting process to the owners of the issues, without them having to be fully conversant with detailed analytical models. Using this framework alternative scenarios are the product of uncertain drivers, processes that will affect the future but that we can not predict; and policy responses, the different management choices that are made in response to the changing world. The process can be used to help choose between alternative polices, or to design policy that is robust under alternative future operating environments.